{"id":1383,"date":"2026-04-08T15:19:44","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T15:19:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/?p=1383"},"modified":"2026-06-10T15:20:05","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T15:20:05","slug":"yak-ukrayina-gotuyetsyado-nastupnoyi-zymy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/en\/yak-ukrayina-gotuyetsyado-nastupnoyi-zymy\/","title":{"rendered":"How Ukraine Is Preparing for the Next Winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Oleksandr Kroshka on Resilience Plans and New Ideas for Heat Supply in Case of Emergencies<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After the massive attacks on energy infrastructure, it became clear that centralized systems built according to the logic of past decades are vulnerable not only to wear and tear. In response, the state and regions have begun to develop comprehensive resilience plans that are meant not merely to restore what has been destroyed, but to change the very approach to heat supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the arrival of the spring\u2013summer period, attention to the issue of heat supply has waned, yet it is precisely during this time that it is decided what the coming winters will be like for Ukrainian households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Behind the loud announcements about the approval of resilience plans lies a number of practical questions: whether the system is ready for rapid recovery, how to synchronize management decisions with the interests of the regions, and what new technical solutions might be available in case of emergencies \u2014 which, amid the ongoing war, are inevitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How the new model is taking shape,<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>Ekonomichna Pravda<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>spoke with&nbsp;<strong>Alexander Kroshka<\/strong>, board member of the heat-generating equipment manufacturer&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/en\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;Kolvi&#8221;<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/O0Sg2Wy_NdY?si=g6kovwtyZ_cwhF7M\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">On the Current Situation: Resilience Plans, Kyiv's Experience, and \"Modularity\"<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 In\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/epravda.com.ua\/projects\/yak-zabezpechiti-teplo-817077\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">a previous interview<\/a>, when speaking about approaches to solving heat supply problems under emergency circumstances, you divided them into planned and emergency ones. More than two months have passed since then. During this time, the heads of regional military administrations presented regional resilience plans \u2014 including for the city of Kyiv \u2014 at NSDC meetings, and, pursuant to the Government resolution of March 4, 2026, a Coordination Center for the implementation of comprehensive resilience plans was established. Setting aside the earlier stages, can the current steps be considered an example of precisely a planned approach?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 To answer this question comprehensively and substantively, one needs to be able to study the content of the resilience plans themselves. Their full versions are restricted-access documents, but certain aspects are known to us. As of today, it is clear that the approaches differ significantly: some regions set the financing of decentralized heat supply and infrastructure restoration as a priority, while others \u2014 primarily those near the front line \u2014 focus on building protective structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/yell-1024x683.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1385\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this sense, the relevant resilience documents can be regarded as a conditionally planned solution, but specifically in the logic of wartime. Under peacetime conditions, such an approach could hardly be called classic planning in the energy sector. The timeframes are far too tight for a full-fledged cycle \u2014 from concept and design to justification, conducting procurement, and selecting contractors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, under the current conditions, this is more of a forced adaptation: the state and communities are acting within the limits of available resources and time, trying to ensure the basic resilience of the system here and now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 Certain information about the resilience plans does nonetheless appear in the public space, particularly in officials' statements. In this context, I would like to understand the preparation process itself: were heat supply equipment manufacturers involved in developing the plans, at least at the consultation level?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 As a specialist who observed this process, I can put it briefly: the preparation of the plans was rather chaotic, which is, in principle, natural, since there is no established procedure, no clear methodologies, and no common understanding of exactly what such a document should look like and what its priority is for a specific region. As a result, each oblast and each city formed its own approaches essentially \"on the fly\": they gathered the needs of communities, assessed the technical condition of infrastructure, and calculated basic parameters. Where there was stronger expertise or access to specialized professionals, these plans looked more well-grounded. But on the whole, these are more like framework documents, with approximate estimates and without deep detail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 Each regional plan covers four key areas: protection of critical infrastructure, development of distributed generation, uninterrupted heat supply, and water supply. To what extent does the allocated resource correspond to the real needs of communities?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 If you look at the practice, you can see that regions are choosing different models, and that is logical. For example, one city focused on reinforcing infrastructure, while it plans to carry out the reconstruction of heat supply systems through credit financing from international institutions. This approach has its own economics: modernization makes it possible to reduce the consumption of energy resources, and through these savings the loan can effectively be serviced. However, we must be realistic with you: such a model will at the same time eventually require a revision of heat supply tariffs, taking into account the cost of natural gas purchased on market terms \u2014 and given how the enemy is destroying national production, the need for gas imports is clearly not going to decrease. The current and projected price dynamics, particularly due to events in the Middle East, are, I think, clear to readers.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/blurit-1024x683.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1386\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pictured: a KOLVI block-modular boiler house with a capacity of 12 MW in one of the front-line cities<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another city took a different path \u2014 it requested state funding for the reconstruction and decentralization of the system. And this approach also looks justified, since decentralization directly affects the reduction of losses and the increased resilience of the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is, there is no universal solution here. Different instruments can be equally appropriate, provided they match the specific conditions and capabilities of the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 As we have already mentioned, on March 4, 2026, the Government established a Coordination Center for the implementation of comprehensive resilience plans for regions and individual cities. Is this Center already carrying out any specific work?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 We have not yet received any feedback from the Coordination Center. But I cannot be an expert in public administration. Perhaps the Center is somehow coordinating the implementation of the resilience plans, their timelines, or something else. So far, I have only seen the chaotic nature of the actions in preparing the plans themselves, and a multitude of commentators who have begun to assess the actions of the state institution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 The total cost of implementing the Comprehensive Resilience Plans is estimated at UAH 216.32 billion. The sources of financing vary: the state and local budgets, support from international partners \u2014 in particular through the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine \u2014 and the supply of equipment. At the same time, in previous interviews you emphasized: for such strategies to work, financing must be stable and predictable. After all, without contracts, designated contractors, and equipment orders, timelines inevitably shift, and consequently readiness for the heating season is called into question. Please tell me, is there already any real movement toward concluding contracts and loading production facilities?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 To be frank, fully restoring what has been destroyed before the start of the heating season is unrealistic. Part of the work will be completed, perhaps to the tune of 50\u201370%, at best up to 80%. If we are lucky and everyone works in sync and without delays, then maybe we can reach 100% by the end of December. However, it is worth taking into account that the President and Government representatives note that the enemy is already counteracting the recovery schedule and plans, so we need to be realists. And we must understand that state financing of any measures depends on the budget being filled with revenue. In April, the Government was expecting part of a EUR 90 billion loan; decisions on these funds are blocked at the EU level, and when these funds will arrive and how they will be distributed is an open question. Therefore, one should understand that budget financing does not mean that the money is lying somewhere waiting for its recipient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What is happening today is, to a large extent, held together by the willingness of the manufacturers themselves to take on risks. Ukrainian enterprises are already starting to work \"for stock,\" without clear long-term contracts. And this is in fact one of the key challenges \u2014 the absence of a systematic dialogue between state administrators and the national manufacturer.<\/strong>&nbsp;If there were an understanding of volumes and capacities \u2014 who can manufacture what, where, and how much \u2014 it would be possible to build up stockpiles in advance and not lose time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For our part, as a manufacturer whose knowledge is based on decades of experience working in various regions and which has successfully implemented heat supply decentralization projects already under the conditions of the full-scale invasion in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv,&nbsp;<strong>we have proposed an approach that, in our view, addresses the challenges our state faced this winter. Let us conditionally call it \"modularity.\"<\/strong>&nbsp;The essence of the solution is for boiler houses to be assembled like a construction set from standard interchangeable blocks. The key element \u2014 the boiler \u2014 must be such that it can be replaced in literally 2\u20133 hours. Regardless of whether it is Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, or any other city.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/newkolv-1024x683.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1387\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pictured: the process\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/epravda.com.ua\/projects\/mobilni-blochno-modulni-813692\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">of shipping<\/a>\u00a0a Kolvi boiler house module<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is about the logic of the system. If the weather is warmer in one city and there is a capacity reserve, these blocks can be temporarily transferred to another region where the situation is critical. Effectively, to create a network of mutual support between cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For ourselves, we have already defined a basic standard:&nbsp;<strong>one module is approximately 4 MW. Precisely 4 MW is optimal for transportation and rapid installation. Large boiler houses can be made up of such blocks \u2014 8, 12, 16 MW and more.&nbsp;<\/strong>Smaller blocks (1\u20133 MW) are manufactured faster, but they do not provide that flexibility at the system level. That is why right now we \u2014 again, at our own risk \u2014 are already producing such modules, so that, if needed, they can be quickly combined and put into operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After all, if we recall Kyiv, they were also preparing for the crisis there \u2014 emergency boiler houses from donors were supplied. But the issue is not the availability of equipment, but its actual use. I have not seen a single case where emergency diesel boiler houses worked as a solution. For some reason, they sat in warehouses. The system was held together back then not by them, but by people from the regions \u2014 engineers who manually \"rewired\" the networks, switched the supply, and dealt with the consequences of the breakdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, in my opinion, the key is not in the number of \"emergency\" solutions sitting in warehouses, but in building stationary yet modular systems. Ones where individual elements can be quickly replaced and relocated. And then this is no longer a piecemeal response, but a manageable system capable of adapting to load and crisis situations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Kyiv, the greatest activity \u2014 at least at the level of absorbing the experience of how heat supply decentralization took place in other cities \u2014 was shown only by the head of the district whose residents spent almost the longest part of this past winter without heating (<em>this refers to the head of the Desnianskyi District State Administration, Maksym Bakhmatov. \u2014 Ed.<\/em>). Perhaps he did not know how to restore the infrastructure, but he convened meetings and panels, communicated with designers and equipment manufacturers, traveled around the cities of Ukraine that had already carried out such work, adopted reconstruction experience, and studied the issue. At least at the organizational level, he made efforts, and therefore he has prospects of preparing the district for the arrival of the cold weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cogeneration Is Not a Universal Solution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 Right now, there are quite active statements from the expert community about the need to develop cogeneration. In fact, various solutions are often lumped under this term. How do you assess such approaches?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 I would start here with something simple: whom do we call experts? Because, in my opinion, an expert is first and foremost a person who has a technical education and practical experience in implementing such projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We, for example, were involved in the reconstruction of combined heat and power plants and implemented decentralization solutions even before the full-scale invasion, particularly in Kharkiv. And at the time, this was viewed primarily as a tool for increasing efficiency and saving costs. So when people today speak of cogeneration as a universal solution, I take a rather reserved view of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cogeneration cannot exist on its own, without baseline heat generation. In essence, a cogeneration unit is an internal combustion engine that requires maintenance, shutdowns, and so on. And here a simple question arises: what happens at the moment of peak load when, say, it is minus 20 outside and the unit needs to be shut down for maintenance? What do you cover the demand for heat with at that moment?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ki_o-1024x683.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1388\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, baseline generation \u2014 whether it is a combined heat and power plant or large boiler houses \u2014 does not go anywhere. It must serve as the foundation of the system. Cogeneration can complement it, but not replace it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I would see it as an auxiliary element. For example, alongside a boiler house with a capacity of 10 MW, a cogeneration unit could operate, supplying electricity to pumps and other infrastructure. Part of the heat in this case could be used by the main generation, which is more flexible in terms of regulation. But to bet on this as the sole source is risky and economically dubious. If you calculate the payback period, it often turns out to be longer than the equipment's service life \u2014 not to mention that, for some reason, everyone is shy about naming the cost of 1 kW of energy produced by such units; I would remind you that the basis of this cost will be the cost of gas and the investment in the equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key task right now is to ensure rapid recovery in the event of damage. And that is why we return once again to the idea of modularity. Not to emergency boiler houses that sit in warehouses and whose application is unclear, but to systems where individual nodes can be quickly replaced. There are already specialists for this, a clear logic of operation, and the manufacturer's responsibility for the result. The connection points are standardized, and the equipment is familiar to specialists in various regions, no matter where they come from or where the need for emergency repair arises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Building Codes Need to Be Revised<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 Are you aware of the priority regions in terms of financing expenditures under the resilience strategies? Also, do you perhaps have information about the time horizon this program is designed for in terms of planning? Are we talking about two to three years, or must all the plans be financed and completed within the current year?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 The plans were formed during the most difficult heating season since the full-scale war began, based on the real experience of this winter \u2014 attacks, outages, breakdowns, and recoveries. The main focus is the front-line territories. So these plans are not for a single winter. These are long-term solutions that, I hope, will work for years, strengthening the resilience of communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 Incidentally, as specialists note, Finland \u2014 a country with a climate similar to Ukraine's \u2014 switched to a distributed heat supply model back in the 1990s. Heat losses in the networks amount to 5\u20137% versus Kyiv's 28%. At the same time, in Ukraine, when it comes to block-modular boiler houses in urban development, building codes are cited, claiming that a 30-meter chimney, a sanitary zone, and so on are required. Do such problems really exist, and are you aware of whether they are being resolved at the level of state regulation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 The DBN (<em>State Building Codes \u2014 Ed.<\/em>) \"Boiler Houses\" were written some 50 years ago for boilers with an efficiency of 80% and a flue gas temperature of 150\u2013250\u00b0C. As of now, our products have an efficiency of 90\u201396% and a flue gas temperature of only 40\u201360\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Certain regulatory restrictions do indeed exist. These include safe operation rules, requirements for siting facilities, and so-called protection zones. But it is important to understand their nature. For example, a protection zone is, in essence, a safety requirement in the event of an accident. And it can be addressed not only by distance, but also by engineering solutions \u2014 for example, reinforcing the perimeter or using protective structures. This is normal practice. There are enough examples in the city where high-hazard facilities, such as filling stations, operate in dense development precisely thanks to such solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for chimneys and ecology, here, in my opinion, the issue is often exaggerated. Modern boiler houses, even if there are a dozen of them, will not significantly affect the overall environmental situation. They have new combustion systems, burners, and substantially lower emissions. If you compare them, for example, with solid-fuel boiler houses \u2014 there the level of emissions is objectively higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/kolvi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/five-1024x683.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1389\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, we have a certain paradox. In an emergency situation, diesel boiler houses are used, often without proper chimneys and without serious emissions control. And at that moment, the issue of ecology fades into the background. But when it comes to stationary, far more efficient and cleaner solutions, we run up against requirements like a 30-meter chimney. This looks absurd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is obvious that many provisions of the DBN need to be revised, taking into account the real performance indicators of modern equipment. And this is precisely the area where the state \u2014 in particular through the relevant coordination bodies \u2014 could play a key role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, I would not call for ignoring the standards as such. Construction must be done properly, even if these standards need updating. A separate matter is that these rules must correspond to modern technologies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0406\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0432&#8217;\u044e \u0432\u0438\u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044e \u00ab\u0415\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0434\u0430\u00bb \u2014 \u00ab\u042f\u043a \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0430 \u0433\u043e\u0442\u0443\u0454\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u0434\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u043d\u043e\u0457 \u0437\u0438\u043c\u0438\u00bb, \u0443 \u044f\u043a\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u041e\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0430\u043d\u0434\u0440 \u041a\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043a\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u044e\u0454 \u043f\u043e \u0441\u0443\u0442\u0456 \u043f\u0440\u043e \u043f\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0456\u0439\u043a\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0456 \u0442\u0430 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0456\u0434\u0435\u0457 \u0434\u043b\u044f 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